"Neoklassieke knelpunten voor de Nederlandse
economie voor de ontwikkeling op de langere termijn", CPB interne notitie
89-III-20, 23 november 1989 (pdf file 960 KB)
The context for this internal note is that I had been calibrating the medium
term model Athena (CPB 1990, monograph 30) for the long run study (CPB
1992, "Scanning the future" and "Nederland in drievoud"). One report of
me concerned the technical performance of the model, and the observed long
run elasticities. This internal note deals with economic observations.
My chef, who originally had proposed that I got the normal ('double') raise,
told me that I did get only the single raise, and that the above internal
note had fallen sour with the directorate and that it would have been better
if I would not have written it.
There never has been any further discussion of the note.
The CPB-directorate has given permission that the note is published. It
is included as a chapter in Cool (1992), "Definition and Reality in the
general theory of political economy, Some background papers 1989-1992",
Magnana Mu Publishing & Research, Rotterdam, ISBN 90-5518-207-9
Please be aware that the note has been written in busy times and without
the intention of being published. So have mercy. But the point that it
makes is correct: (a) The results of "Scanning the future" will be limited,
not what one would tend to expect, (b) Most problems are of medium term
character anyway, (c) A different approach is promising (that can be supplemental
to "Scanning the future").